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The Lithium Market

An introduction to lithium

Lithium demand and end-uses

Lithium is a well-established industrial metal with uses diversified across sectors including materials for glass and ceramics production, as a component in performance greases and lubricants and as a metallurgical powder. More recently, it has come to the fore as a battery material for electric vehicles, as well as portable electronics.

Lithium is the lightest solid element and the lightest alkali metal. Lithium’s advantages are its high electrochemical potential, while it also has the lowest density and highest specific heat capacity of all metals. It is found in the Earth’s crust, but never in its pure metallic form as it exhibits similar properties to other alkali metals, such as high reactivity and flammability. 

Lithium’s end-uses can be broadly split into three categories: automotive battery, other battery, and non-battery. Major end-uses for lithium comprise lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) for electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage and other electronic devices, such as mobile phones, laptops, tablets and power tools, primary (non-rechargeable) batteries for electronic devices, and non-battery applications, including glass and ceramics, greases and lubricants, air treatment, aluminium smelting, metallurgical casting powders, pharmaceutical drugs (medical) and rubber tyre manufacturing (polymers). End-use applications for each salt vary, although there is some overlap, especially between lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH).

Since the early 2010s, lithium chemistries have started to play a leading role in automotive battery technologies, alongside several others as manufacturers have experimented with different chemistries to optimise all aspects of performance and, of course, price. Consequently, lithium consumption in automotive batteries started to rise significantly as EV production expanded rapidly.

Lithium supply and resources

Lithium occurs in over 100 different mineral compounds, although only a handful are currently economic to extract, with spodumene (highest grades) being the most commercially viable hard rock source and hence the most commonly mined. Spodumene is typically found in pegmatites which are igneous rocks similar to granites but with very coarse grain sizes. Pegmatites provide the greatest abundance of lithium-bearing materials, also commonly containing petalite, lepidolite, amblygonite and eucryptite. Some of these minerals are also currently extracted for lithium, while the others have been mined in the past. Other notable minerals include hectorite (clay), jadarite and zinnwaldite, deposits of which are currently being evaluated as potentially economic sources of lithium.

Aside from rock-based sources, lithium is also commonly found in brine water, particularly in sub-surface continental (closed-basin) brines (160-2,000 ppm), which are typically found in arid climates under salt pans (also known as salars). These shallow deposits are accumulations of saline groundwater within closed basins that are enriched with dissolved lithium leached from local lithium-rich source rocks. Lithium is also found in seawater (0.14-0.25 ppm), with higher concentrations found near hydrothermal vents (up to 7 ppm), as well as in leachates of geothermal wells (geothermal brines). Brines containing lithium (petrobrines; up to 700 ppm) are also extracted from oilfields as a waste product from underground formations, along with oil and gas.

Thus, lithium deposits that are economically viable to exploit fall into two broad categories: hard rock and brine. Hard rock mineral deposits (including clay) are exploited by open-pit or underground mining methods. Mined ore is then typically concentrated into a more mineral-rich product, such as spodumene concentrate, for further processing into lithium compounds at conversion plants around the world. Significant hard rock resources are located in Australia, the US, China, sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, Canada, Mexico and Russia. Continental brine deposits are pumped to the surface and then concentrated in a series of large solar evaporation ponds. As the water is evaporated by the Sun it creates an increasingly concentrated brine which, once sufficiently enriched in lithium (~5,000 ppm), is processed at a chemical plant and converted into lithium compounds, primarily lithium chloride (LiCl), Li2CO3 and LiOH. Substantial brine resources are located in the Lithium Triangle of South America (Chile-Argentina-Bolivia), China and the US.

Owing to its high reactivity, lithium is sold commercially as various lithium compounds, particularly Li2CO3 and LiOH, as well as LiCl, lithium fluoride (LiF), and butyllithium.

Lithium supply and demand are reported in lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) tonnes as an industry standard, rather than in tonnes of pure lithium metal. LiOH readily absorbs water from the air, forming lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LiOH.H2O), and is often sold in this form.

Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) supply-demand balance

 

 LCE tonnes     2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Primary supply                  
Regional                  
 Australia     63,000 72,155 179,105 221,825 238,940 196,400 231,295
 Chile     57,300 68,300 74,530 89,345 103,830 114,200 126,565
 China     9,890 15,410 20,515 24,810 29,255 33,965 36,840
 Argentina     18,275 30,040 30,465 34,070 33,725 31,125 35,960
 North America     4,000 4,000 6,010 18,480 6,655 2,200 3,000
 Brazil     880 1,060 1,165 4,125 10,625 11,810 12,990
 Other     5,350 5,755 5,120 6,010 6,395 7,300 8,210
 Total     158,695 196,725 316,915 398,755 429,425 397,005 454,865
                   
Demand and recycling
 Battery demand                
  Battery electric vehicles (BEV) 10,025 15,755 25,905 55,960 79,660 112,040 170,310
  Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) 1,880 3,030 4,400 6,520 6,080 10,480 14,145
  Full hybrid electric vehicles (FHEV) 880 1,060 1,180 1,285 1,870 2,270 3,210
  Mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEV) 195 170 145 725 2,000 3,485 6,570
  Full cell electric vehicles (FCEV) 0 5 5 5 15 15 40
  Heavy-duty electric vehicles (HDEV) 550 1,255 1,795 2,200 2,615 3,620 5,490
  E-bikes     0 1,590 1,725 1,875 2,090 2,320 2,540
  Total     13,530 22,865 33,155 68,570 94,335 134,225 202,305
                   
 Other battery demand                
  Laptops and tablets   13,545 12,305 12,195 11,820 11,825 14,920 17,245
  Mobile phones   9,600 9,760 9,735 9,285 8,985 8,270 9,485
  Energy storage   0 0 875 1,580 2,360 3,340 5,175
  Other battery     13,690 13,955 14,290 14,620 14,910 13,950 15,230
  Total other battery   36,865 36,015 37,090 37,305 38,080 40,480 47,135
                 
 Non-battery demand                
  Glass & ceramics   46,005 47,155 49,140 51,045 52,570 51,330 54,210
  Greases & lubricants   19,525 20,000 20,805 21,550 22,185 22,840 23,500
  Other non-battery   51,115 52,210 53,750 55,210 56,105 55,735 58,355
  Total non-battery   116,645 119,365 123,700 127,805 130,865 129,910 136,065
                   
Gross demand     167,010 178,245 195,950 233,685 263,280 304,615 385,505
                   
Recycling     0 0 0 0 0 5 35
                   
Net demand     167,010 178,245 195,950 233,680 262,280 304,610 385,470
                   
Market balance   -8,315 18,480 120,965 165,075 166,145 92,395 69,390
                   

Source: SFA (Oxford). Updated July 2021.

Lithium hydroxide (LiOH.H20) supply-demand balance

 

 LiOH.H2O tonnes       2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Primary supply                  
Regional                  
 China         26,805 46,085 63,800 81,900 98,245
 Chile         4,650 4,550 7,080 7,925 9,745
 USA         9,040 9,490 9,940 5,750 9,070
 Australia         0 0 0 0 2,500
 Other         0 850 1,450 1,450 1,450
 Total         40,500 60,980 82,270 97,025 121,005
                   
Demand and recycling
 Battery demand              
  Battery electric vehicles (BEV)     13,540 34,500 54,895 80,065 154,045
  Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)     1,700 3,250 3,350 6,050 10,860
  Full hybrid electric vehicles (FHEV)     455 640 1,030 1,310 2,465
  Mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEV)     55 365 1,100 2,015 5,045
  Full cell electric vehicles (FCEV)     0 5 10 5 30
  Heavy-duty electric vehicles (HDEV)     305 375 445 615 935
  E-bikes         295 320 355 395 430
  Total         16,355 39,455 61,185 90,460 178,810
                   
Gross demand         16,355 39,455 61,185 90,460 178,810
                   
Market balance       24,145 21,525 21,085 6,565 -52,805
                   

Source: SFA (Oxford). Updated July 2021.

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