Market outlook for nickel

Released annually, SFA's Long-term Nickel Market report will keep you abreast of rapidly evolving developments in the nickel and nickel sulphate market, providing you with a competitive edge. Our ground-breaking study examines, on a deep-dive basis, the changing nature of the nickel market and metal prices out to 2040 from the likely effects of automotive and battery technological advances.

The report details market developments and is tailored to incorporate an individual client’s specific strategic requirements covering:

Nickel demand impacts and new market threats:

• Macroeconomic developments on long-term supply-demand fundamentals and technology (global, US, EU and China).

• The impact of powertrain technology trends, specifically EV forecast risks including global powertrain evolution and electrification, automaker announcements and implications for commodities, EU CO₂ emission targets and opportunities for EVs, hybrid technology developments, China’s policies and the new energy vehicle market, and US market risks.

• Long-term battery technology shifts and EV powertrain developments and their impact on nickel demand.

• A full review of nickel used in lithium-ion batteries, including the growing popularity of NMC (and NCA) battery cathode chemistries.

• The trade flows of class 1 and class 2 nickel products worldwide and an assessment of China's position in the global supply chain.

• Upside and downside EV uptake scenarios illustrate the potential envelope of supply-demand, and therefore price possibilities in future.

• SFA's long-term research into PGMs requires us to undertake ongoing detailed modelling of the risks associated with the future evolution of the battery raw materials supply chain. Therefore, the nickel market report also includes reviews of loadings of nickel by vehicle model and powertrain type.

• Other nickel end-uses, including battery types, are presented and quantified, along with a review of stainless steel, alloy steels, non-ferrous alloy requirements and other industrial applications, both emerging and in decline.

• Supporting demand data to 2040 on nickel demand by end-use and nickel EV demand by region.

  
  
  

Nickel supply and production economic impacts:

• Updates on the present and future long-term stability and growth of primary nickel supply and by-product nickel supply from PGMs, supply response, reserves and resources, factors influencing cost inflation and exchange rate and volume impacts.

• Nickel sulphide and nickel laterite operations and projects across Indonesia, the Philippines, Russia, New Caledonia, Canada and Australia are examined in detail, highlighting the potential supply constraints and political risks.

• Refined nickel pig iron production in Indonesia and China, and ferronickel production.

• Producer economics of nickel and nickel sulphate production.

• An overview of nickel supply and processing methods.

• A review of highly probable and possible nickel projects to 2040, including grade and volume analysis.

• Supporting supply data to 2040 on nickel supply by region, producer and operation.

Nickel recycling:

• The need for and current status of nickel recycling is also discussed. The rapid rise in prices and concerns over future mine supplies of nickel have led to a greater focus on its recycling and our report delves into the current status of the nickel recycling industry, its major players and market developments.

Price forecasts and market scenarios:

• The report concludes with a range of nickel and nickel sulphate supply-demand outlooks and price forecasts out to 2040 to highlight where potential pinch-points for the market might occur in future, including supply risks, EV scenarios, substitution and recycling potential.

Who should read this report?

• All industry stakeholders and new business entrants who need to keep abreast of the evolving influences on the nickel market and prices, including end-users, mining companies and juniors. 

• Investors and financial institutions needing to understand and quantify the risks and opportunities in the industry, future costs of production and short- to long-term nickel prices.

Live Q&A with the analysts

• Our report is supported by a video call, most often hosted through MS Teams, which is led by Beresford Clarke, along with our team of expert Battery Metals analysts, to run through the 2040 Nickel Market Report, and address any further questions your team may have.