The Palladium Market
An introduction to palladium
Palladium is primarily used as a catalyst in the automotive sector, mainly in gasoline-powered on-road vehicles, and has displaced platinum in some parts of on-road diesel engine autocatalysts. The second main use of palladium is in electrical components, specifically in multi-layer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs), as conductive pastes and in electrical plating.
From its humble beginnings in the 1970s and 1980s, the palladium market has grown to over 10 million ounces, mainly as a result of it being a substitute for platinum in autocatalysts for gasoline cars. Russian state stocks have dried up, whilst underlying global primary supply has hardly changed and palladium is now trading at a premium to platinum. However, with palladium overwhelmingly reliant on autocatalysts, accounting for 79% of demand, could this prove to be a 'boom or bust' situation?
Related palladium news and insights
Where next for palladium?
14 September 2021 | Stephen A. Forrest, Beresford Clarke
Read SFA's latest edition of The Palladium Standard which discusses current palladium market dynamics, price outlook, and feature articles from selected players, as well as our latest platinum and rhodium outlooks.
Russia’s new cash cow
8 July 2021 | Prof. Paul Chaisty
SFA's Associate, Dr Paul Chaisty, Professor of Russian and East European Politics, St Antony's College, University of Oxford, discusses Russia's decision to impose export duties on the Russian export industry.
Rand strength could help lift the platinum price
31 January 2022 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus – Edition 2
Outlook 2022 – Markets normalising in 2022
24 January 2022 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus – Forecast
Iridium and ruthenium were the only winners in 2021
17 January 2022 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus – Edition 1
Low-cost PGM ounces from Zimbabwe reaching record levels
13 December 2021 | SFA (Oxford) & Heraeus – Edition 44
Palladium in context, 1980 to 2021
Palladium supply-demand balance
| koz | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021f |
| Primary supply | |||||||||
| Regional | |||||||||
| South Africa | 2,360 | 1,870 | 2,560 | 2,375 | 2,530 | 2,500 | 2,555 | 1,845 | 2,670 |
| Russia | 2,580 | 2,690 | 2,605 | 2,555 | 2,740 | 2,670 | 2,870 | 2,810 | 2,350 |
| Zimbabwe | 315 | 330 | 325 | 395 | 395 | 380 | 385 | 405 | 415 |
| North America | 975 | 1,055 | 995 | 1,065 | 985 | 1,035 | 975 | 950 | 1,000 |
| Other | 450 | 460 | 455 | 420 | 415 | 395 | 395 | 385 | 335 |
| Total | 6,680 | 6,405 | 6,940 | 6,810 | 7,065 | 6,980 | 7,180 | 6,395 | 6,770 |
| Demand and recycling |
|||||||||
| Autocatalyst | |||||||||
| Gross demand | 7,105 | 7,475 | 7,585 | 7,925 | 8,145 | 8,290 | 8,445 | 7,400 | 8,230 |
| Recycling | 1,640 | 1,720 | 1,610 | 1,710 | 1,920 | 2,040 | 2,180 | 2,005 | 2,310 |
| Net demand | 5,465 | 5,755 | 5,975 | 6,215 | 6,225 | 6,250 | 6,265 | 5,395 | 5,9200 |
| Jewellery | |||||||||
| Gross demand | 350 | 295 | 240 | 240 | 225 | 220 | 215 | 155 | 180 |
| Recycling | 145 | 120 | 80 | 80 | 70 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
| Net demand | 205 | 175 | 160 | 160 | 155 | 160 | 160 | 105 | 125 |
| Industrial demand | 1,990 | 1,935 | 1,945 | 1,905 | 1,860 | 1,845 | 1,730 | 1,625 | 1,620 |
| Other recycling | 410 | 430 | 435 | 385 | 380 | 375 | 375 | 345 | 400 |
| Gross demand | 9,450 | 9,705 | 9,770 | 10,070 | 10,230 | 10,355 | 10,390 | 9,180 | 10,030 |
| Recycling | 2,200 | 2,270 | 2,125 | 2,175 | 2,370 | 2,475 | 2,610 | 2,400 | 2,765 |
| Net demand | 7,250 | 7,435 | 7,645 | 7,895 | 7,860 | 7,880 | 7,780 | 6,780 | 7,265 |
| Market balance | |||||||||
| Balance (before ETFs) |
-570 | -1,030 | -705 | -1,085 | -795 | -900 | -600 | -385 | -495 |
| ETFs (stock allocation) |
-5 | 930 | -665 | -640 | -375 | -560 | -90 | -115 | |
| Balance after ETFs |
-565 | -1,960 | -40 | -445 | -420 | -340 | -510 | -270 | |
Source: SFA (Oxford). Updated September 2021.
Linked palladium market reports
SFA (Oxford) provides regular bespoke market intelligence reports on palladium as well as in-depth studies on recycling, metal flows and price setting.
The PGM Quarterly Market Outlook (3-year forecast)
Released every three months, this price risk-focused report details-impacting factors for platinum, palladium and rhodium markets for the next three years.
The 2031 PGM Market Outlook
Released Bi-annually, our highly-detailed 10-year view provides current, and long-term trends and influences acting on the global PGM markets.
The 2040 PGM Market Outlook
Released annually, this ground-breaking forward-looking report analyses the influences and trends on the PGM markets between 2030 and 2040.
Heraeus Precious Appraisal and Market Spotlights
In collaboration with Heraeus, this weekly report makes sure all the key precious metal and macroeconomic developments are fully analysed by the SFA team.
Joining the Dots between Metal Flows and Prices
Unrivalled insights and definitive answers to PGM purchasing dynamics, metal flows, trading and pricing factors affecting platinum, palladium and rhodium.
Spent Autocatalyst Recycling
A comprehensive study of recycled autocatalysts from scrapyards, collection, decanners, smelting and refining players, technology developments and economics.
Global PGM Project Monitor Outlook
DCF scenario modelling analysing the attractiveness of global PGM projects based on incentivised PGM pricing which can motivate new supply.
Long-term PGM Supply Appraisal Outlook
An evaluation on future supply risk from mines and projects around the world, and the economic cost of production.
Global PGM Mine Depletion Assessment
Analytics on the PGM primary production landscape, assessing estimated depletion rates of mines and projects, forecasting ounce loss.
North America PGM Market Outlook
An assessment of PGM purchasing, trade flows and end-use consumption as well as mapping key industry players for strategic investment.
China PGM Market Outlook
Bottom-up evaluation of the precious metals trading environment, regulatory framework, end-use markets, recycling volumes and key players.
India PGM Market Outlook
Detailed market intelligence on PGM demand and supply, major players and the recycling market to assist strategic planning.
Northern Hemisphere PGM Processing Report
Processing analytics, capacity utilisation rates, logistical flows and plant feeds for the PGM smelters, and refineries of North America, Europe and Russia.
Southeast Asia PGM Market Outlook
A critical impact study of PGM consumption by country of major-end uses, and future metal requirements by company.
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Stephen A. Forrest
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Thomas Chandler
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Angus Butterfield
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Nelsa Martins
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Daniel Croft
Precious Metals Analyst
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